Using Climate Forecasts in Agricultural Activities in Tlaxcala

Participating Institutions:

Instituto Nacional de Ecología (INE) - SEMARNAP
Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales (INIFAP) - Tlaxcala
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera (CCA) - UNAM
Centro de Investigaciones de Ciencias Biológicas (CICB) - UAT
Fundación Produce A.C. - Tlaxcala

Overall Objective:

To use available climate information (observations and forecasts) together with an agricultural productivity model for planning and performing economic and social activities in the state of Tlaxcala.

Specific Objectives:

• To identify climate variability forms in different regions in Tlaxcala.

• To develop an inter-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability forecast scheme at regional and local levels.

• To assess an agricultural production model to define the most suitable crop for a certain season, analyzing potential adaptative measures which are applicable to Tlaxcala by using climate forecasts and diagnoses.

• To implement the proposals on type of crop and production in experimental fields and rain-fed land during fall-winter, and spring-summer agricultural cycles.

• To assess the cost-benefit relationship associated with climate information in regional agriculture in Tlaxcala.

Goals:

The project lasted four years. Only in such a period the use of production strategies that take into account climate prediction could be assessed. Although the phenomenon El Niño is not periodic, it is known to occur at least once every six years. Recently, it seems to be occurring more frequently.

Then, the model allows analyzing and making decisions when facing climate variations that are considered adverse or, on the contrary, that may help to improve production through normal climatic conditions.

Justification:

In Mexico, rain-fed agriculture is an activity whose success mainly depends on climate goodness. A good rainy season, together with appropriate temperature conditions and lack of extreme events (such as hailstorms, freezing, etc.) is a guarantee of success to producers. It is clear, though, that such elements are not constant in the Mexican country, on the contrary, they are highly variable and many times bring about significant losses.

Climate in Tlaxcala has great spatial variability due to its orography and land-use changes from one region to another. Such variations among regions result in meteorological weather changes from one place to another day by day. Nevertheless, climate in the region in general must be modulated by factors of a higher spatial scale which last over longer time scales. Climate is precisely the decisive factor for the type of crop and production in a certain season.

Nowadays, it is evident that regional climate in Mexico is highly dependable on the occurrence of an event El Niño or its counterpart, La Niña. The existence of such conditions in winter or summer may determine a rainy or dry, warm or cold season. These diagnoses are valuable in understanding some of the changes experienced in different parts of the country. However, planning of economic activities may only be performed when, in addition to diagnosing climate, it may be forecasted. Such statement has been subject of study in the Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera (Center for Atmosphere Sciences) since two years ago.

Countries widely affected by El Niño, such as Brazil and Peru, use diagnosis and forecast information of this phenomenon in order to plan their activities. In every case, the results have been successful. In fact, these results have made the international community start including the results of regional climate variability studies (impacts of El Niño) in socioeconomic activity planning. These activities encompass agriculture, fishing, transport, mining, health, etc.

Advances:

Workshops have been held in the CICB – Department of Agrobiology, Tlaxcala Autonomous University, in which those responsible, collaborators, and students associated to this project have participated by submitting and discussing progress and partial conclusions and results which they have arrived at in each research within the project.

• The First Workshop was held on 17 and 18 October 1996.

• The Second Workshop was held on 15 - 17 December 1996.

• The Third Workshop was held on 3 and 4 March 1997.